Odds

[fishtheorange]

Mathematically, how do you work out the odds for landing each cards, based on a table with 9 other players?

As an example, ime currently holding 8c. What are the odds of landing another 8 on the flop?

[DrewMan]

Here's the deal. Regardless of how many people are at the table, there are 50 unknown cards to you (besides your two hole cards). 3 of the 50 are 8's. so there is 3/50 = 6% chance the for the first card to be an 8. If it doesn't hit, 3/49 on the second, and if it doesn't hit, 3/48 on the 3rd card of the flop. So the odds of there being one more 8 in the flop is 3/50 + 3/49 + 3/48 = 18.37%. Now if one card hits, the odds of yet another 8 go down considerably. Get the idea? Of course if you know what's in any of the other hands you can calculate the odds more accurately, but you never do - right. You can guess what others have by what they bet, and this might let you infer odds more accurately but then you're really guessing and using intuition. But that's a lot of what poker is all about - right?

[Mac46]

Spot on Drewman..

The point is you only know what you can see. Everything else is a possible therefore you must account for it when calculating the odds.

These of course will be your best odds as if other outs are tied up then they are reduced. This gets worse the more people at the table.

An absolutely facinating subject. In live poker sometimes a card gets misdealt or a burn card gets revealed accidentally. I once folded a good hand because one of my key outs was overturned accientally as a burn card.. never happens online.. but if people verbally reveal their hands before the end of play it can make a big difference.



Cheers

Mac

[Mac46]

PS fishthe orange the odds of seeing another 8 with 8 5 offsuit should be zero, because you should never play this hand unless you are in the blinds and no-one has raised, unless you have got a huge amount of skill and experience.

Saying that you will see lots of people limping in with these type of hands on this site.

Cheers

Mac

[OP66fozzy]

Originally Posted by Mac_46

Spot on Drewman..

The point is you only know what you can see. Everything else is a possible therefore you must account for it when calculating the odds.

These of course will be your best odds as if other outs are tied up then they are reduced. This gets worse the more people at the table.

An absolutely facinating subject. In live poker sometimes a card gets misdealt or a burn card gets revealed accidentally. I once folded a good hand because one of my key outs was overturned accientally as a burn card.. never happens online.. but if people verbally reveal their hands before the end of play it can make a big difference.



Cheers

Mac

The only problem with people verbally revealing their hand is you do not know if they are being truthful.

[fishtheorange]

ok nice one, thanks.