A little hand analysis

[Pocket_Ducks]

food for thought

In the hetmans today, myself and noteably conservative player griga went heads up... 2 very different styles of play, and so was an "interesting HU" to watch, with 24 hands played.

At the begining of this i was chip leader with about 50k to his 30k, with blinds at 1k/2k.

We were both up and down, I even dropped down to about 3k after a big hand, but had a lucky run and went back infront with 65k

The chip counts were closest theyve been, with me slightly ahead, right into the penultimate hand here......take a look...

Everleaf Gaming Game #204545071
***** Hand history for game #204545071 *****
Blinds 1500/3000 NL Hold'em - 2010/10/01 - 15:24:45
Table 1
Seat 5
Total number of players: 2
Seat 2: griga ( 36976 Chips )
Seat 5: Pocket_Ducks ( 41024 Chips )
griga: posts ante [ 300 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks: posts ante [ 300 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks: posts 1,500 Chips]
griga: posts 3000 Chips]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Pocket_Ducks ]
Pocket_Ducks 1,500 Chips]
griga 3,000 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks 3,000 Chips]
** Dealing Flop ** ]
griga: 3,000 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks 3,000 Chips]
** Dealing Turn ** ]
griga: 3,000 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks 3,000 Chips]
** Dealing River ** ]
griga checks
Pocket_Ducks: 24,600 Chips]
griga 24,600 Chips]
Pocket_Ducks shows ] a pair of eights
griga shows ] a pair of jacks
griga wins 73800 chips from main pot with a pair of jacks ]

------------------
In hindsight, my bet at the end was far from smart.

But during the whole hand (post flop), I put him on the J, so thought that the 3k minimum bets at this stage were worth calling, to hit one of 5 outs (an 8 or 6)......so when he checked the K on the river, i bet in aim to represent and make his vulnerable J fold. In that I failed

what i'm thinking is a mixture of 2 things:
1. He was pot committed by this stage with still a fairly strong hand, and made the call thinking I might have beaten him
2. he had me read for less than AJ, perhaps a J with weaker kicker, and a) outplayed me completely b) pleaded ignorance with the K on the river.

No doubt if he had just bet another 3k on the river, i probably would have either folded or called - either way would have saved me chips...SO VERY WELL PLAYED GRIGA, and congrats on the gold

oh yeah, congrats to the spoon guy for bronze

kwak

p.s. any comments?

[daddyspoon]

yeah i have a comment, you shouldnt have beat my A10

[BabyJ07]

Aww, very unlucky hun, well done for your excellent play today tho
was proud of you, well done to all



Jo xxx

[Tb1rd]

Ok well the way I see the hand... and I am a little rusty is like this:

1) you call the blind .. this means you've got something better than 2/7 of suit.
2) he min raises, feeling he has got the better hand not wanting to lose you
3) you call, the min raise so this suggests that you could have nice suited connectors, any ace or a K8/9/10+
4) He hits top pair putting out a bet to build the pot; but keep you in the hand.
5) your call signifies you've either got a pocket pair, or have hit the 8/3
6) The seven on the turn is almost a blank card, though does open up draws - however, heads up the draws are less likely to turn into anything. He bets out knowing this feeling he's ahead, and you call again, which shows that you didn't make the 7 - j straight and further cementing that you made contact on the flop.
7) A king comes, now either here he's doubting his initial thoughts of mid/ low pair and putting you on a set (due to constant calls)/ Hit the king on the river.
Or he's thinking he's still ahead and hoping you'll give HIM the amount that he wants (instead of betting and losing you on the river)
8) You then wildy bet out, which to me would say "PLEASE FOLD PLEASE FOLD PLEASE FOLD" So I'm going to call you with my J feeling it's pretty good, and with the prior feelings of you hitting the flop, he knows either way he's got a higher pair than you and most probably a better kicker at that.
Also mix that with the fact that he's already put 12k in the pot, a little wishful thinking may have swayed him.

I think A 3x (9k) raise on the turn followed by maybe a 12-18k bet (or something that says "I want a call from you but a good priced one") on the river could have won you the hand. But I've never seen this guy play so who knows?

It was a good hand in any case

[Pocket_Ducks]

yeah i thought maybe a turn raise might have done the job

in my perpsective, this was the worst possible outcome anyway lol even folding on the flop as a possibility

a cleverly put and well structured input b1rd, thanks

kwak

[BBOB]

in my opinion plain and simple such a large overbet on end makes me think bluff immediantly when u had played the hand so conservative until then but this thinking comes to play with an obvious draw on board which their wasnt (unless u had 10 9 and hit strait on turn) I find its much easier to steal a pot on the turn than on the river in my mind mainly because a huge bet out of no where on river is gonna be called by alot of players just because of how fishy it looks ofcourse this can be turned to ur advantage by overbetting the river with a surething as ive had this used against me before. Catch someone on a bluff and then later they bet another hand big on the end only this time to be the nuts lol.

[chuckster66]

I think over analyzing matters just makes you weak! nothing personal here but its a gambling game, ive won big!!!!!!!!!! and Ive lost huge!!!!!!!!! I have never met A pro Gambler who gives away their game. Some people are lucky ,others aren't. There seems to be an opinion out there that you can put a percentage on how you will do. making wagers is like screwing with mother nature,go ahead screw with it and it will bite your ass every time.Its easy come easy go, no matter how good you think you are.

[CaptainSandy]

I wouldn't have called preflop, lol.

However, I reckon your final bet would have won the hand if it were in the earlier stages. As it was if he called and lost the worst that would happen is second place.