Check Call or Bet Fold? - OnlinePoker66 Forum : Your daily poker board!

DukeOfDeath · #1 12-03-2011

So I have a question (or an unofficial poll almost) about how to deal with borderline river decisions:

When you are heads up on the river in a hand where both parties have shown interest in the flop, how do you decide when to bluff when you should value bet and when you should give up?

I guess a spot we find ourselves in the most often is average. A weak hand is easy to give up on unless you know you are in a good bluffing spot. The nuts pretty much play themselves too. But the average hands aren't as easy to play, and we often miss getting value or turn hands worth a showdown into a bluff so that we scare away worse hands (e.g., raising with an A high flush when a full house is a possibility and there's no way any other hand will pay you off).

So when you are out of position and you can put your opponent on one of 3 hands: a weak one, the nuts, and a good one that you still beat. If you think each of these possibilities is equally likely what do you do?

If you check he'll bet with the hand that beats you 100% of the time. It's a toss up whether he'll bet the good one that you beat. And he'll only bet the bad one if he's a bluffer (and most bluffers likely know this is a risky spot for it if you've shown much interest). So the advantage in this is you can make a decision based on whether your opponent bets. If you think a call is the right decision but still iffy better to check call then bet and call a raise. It's a nice way to pot control. The only downside in this is you miss value when you know you are ahead of more hands than beat you and you don't make sure money gets in the pot.

On the other hand if you bet, you get information. The nuts WILL raise you and you can fold (assuming you don't think your opponent will raise with less). Furthermore if you have a really strong hand and you know there are several not as good hands that will likely still call, you have to make sure you get paid off. The downsides of course are that you will have a tough decision if you get raised. And what might be even worse is if you're up against a player that will bluff when he/she knows there's no other way to win, if you bet you make it tough for them to do it and therefore lose the possibility of being able to make more money off of an opponent's nothing hand.

So I guess it depends a lot on your opponent. A loose caller? bet. An aggressive opponent? check. How would you play it though?

Assuming you are against an unknown average player. How do you play the river in borderline situations?

phattP · #2 12-05-2011

The showdown is a black and white situation....All the cards have come and the hands are finalised...no more betting on what may come next.
Someone wins and someone loses.
I've been in a lot of situations where I'm pretty sure I have the best hand after the river (showdown).

If I'm first to bet I will usually check to see what the other player does. Then I make my decision based on how he's been playing up to then..including previous hands.

If he makes a small bet I will just call. If he checks then I've probably won anyway, but a smaller pot than I could have won.

If he bets out big after the river, I will also just call, rather than re raise ( if I think my hand is best )...the reason is that he has already just built the pot for me and there is no risk of him re raising again with a trap hand.( He might be waiting for the chance to spring one).

I suppose the question leads to another question..... 'Why bet after the river at all?' (answer:- either to build the pot further or to bluff )( ? )

I think that mostly it's best just to check/call, whatever your hand.

If you have the best hand you win ( smaller pot).

If you have the worst hand you can't be re-raised.

Best to try and build the pot before the river rather than after it ( in my humble opinion ), with the added bonus of maybe winning without reaching the river.

Often a huge raise after the river can suggest a desperate bluff to get out of a missed draw. But you can only try and read that if and when it happens.
That's when observation of your opponent is so important... does he strike you as a player capable of trying a huge bluff?

Checking first or second, will win you the pot if you have the best hand, and betting first leaves you open to a trap raise.( possibly a bluff).
Of course you can vary this for deception, as with all your moves.

Also, if he sees you check and win with a big hand, he's less likely to see your checking as a 'sign of weakness' in future hands...hopefully slowing him down if he's a persistent raiser.

Other factors come in to play too... such as, ' how badly does he need to win the hand?' If he's short stacked and had a few bad beats, he may well try and bluff you off the pot with a massive bet.

I called a big bet after the river the other day. I had pocket 6s...the board had no flush draw and a pair of jacks and a king. The other player had been betting right from preflop (after losing a lot in the previous hand) and I had been just calling along.

When the river came and he went all in, my call was almost subconscious...I had already made up my mind to see it through before the flop was even dealt. As it happened, he had 9 high and I won a good pot, but it was more a gut reaction than a considered call.

These are all just random thoughts...each situation is going to be different and each opponent too. Be brave and call if you think you've got it...

DukeOfDeath · #3 12-11-2011

Really good response, P. The strategy you laid out is absolutely perfect when up against someon who stabs at nearly half the rivers checked to him/her (which you find a lot as you move up the ladder). What about slight tweaks of this situation?:

if this same opponent calls with a wide range on the river (even A high as bluff catcher) and rarely raises without the nuts
If the player folds to river bets without a hand like top 2 pair
If the player likes to control the pot like you and will check behind anything but the nuts or close to it

In the first case if he's calling almost any pair so when you bet your 2nd or top pair even on a scary board you get paid off. If your opponent connected... well a raise will chase you away. I don't think a fear of a raise is a bad thing against non bluffy opponents (probably the majority of players we encounter). I mean the hands we get raised off of we aren't winning with a check either, and as for the extra bet we just need to win with it half of the time to be worth it.

In the second case you can bluff... a lot. I mean personally I wouldn't go crazy betting every river because they'll catch on. But there are a lot of opponents that have no fear and call anything hoping river will be gold and then give up because 90% of the time no gold comes.

I really like what you said about checking a really strong hand to protect your weak hands. But those weak hands are only going to win anyway if your opponent is even weaker. If you bet your strong hands and also throw out some bluffs too, you still win the strong ones (even with a bigger pot if you get called) and you also will take down some extra pots you wouldn't have otherwise. Remember only half need to work (technically less than half if your bet sizing is smaller than the pot). If you bet 1/3 pot you only need to have a bluff work 25% of the time to break even. So checking a strong hand can protect your weak ones but betting them can protect your bluffs and bluffing can get your strong hands called more easily (win win?). It just again depends on opponent style.

Finally the third player. A lot of the better but not necessarily scary players we encounter fall into this category. They don't want to risk everything without a really strong hand and so are looking for an easy call or a check so they can check behind. These players like the other examples aren't going to raise you very light. So a raise gives you all the info in the world and doesn't happen often enough to be cause for concern. As to whether to bet or check. If they like to show down, bet for value. If they only want to show down super cheap, bet your strength and bluff some too.

Anyway, against a good tight aggressive capable of bluffing player your check move is good for several reasons, but against your AVERAGE player I would at least keep an open mind for having the bet in your arsenal. Esp. with those good hands, too many players I know will not bet when checked too and WILL call when bet to. When this is the case, I think you HAVE to bet.

In general I like what you said, and given you're up against the correct opponent (which you may be up against a lot more of than I) is IMO the best play. I not only liked your play but your strategy behind it. Was hoping I would get more opinions, but yours was worth about 10 anyway.

phattP · #4 12-11-2011

Thanks Duke.
I always enjoy your posts and the thinking behind them.

I totally agree with you on the point about betting/bluffing when talking about non-bluffy opponents. Pot sizes need to be thought about more, but as you say, it's pretty much win - win with percentages.

In the case of the opponent who calls with a wide range on the river :- Some people are true calling stations, these are the ones that can pay you off after the river.
The problem is that sometimes they hit that 100/1 shot on the river. Generally though, I would say that those players are not crafty enough to check raise you if they've caught lucky.They tend to let you know in no uncertain terms that they just got their 'runner runner inside straight.'
I think, unless your back's against the wall, it's best to fold to any huge post river bet, and hope for a better spot to come along.( Even the biggest bluffers must have their day ).

The point about checking strong hands sometimes:- playing a very aggressive player, if I check post flop after hitting top pair or better, then bet big after the turn, if they fold, I will sometimes show my cards...to say "hey look, just cause I checked after the flop doesn't mean I had nothing."
This has had a noticeable effect in hands that follow...I hesitate, then check, and sure enough, he does the same. If he bets out at that point, I can be more sure that he does actually have a hand and act accordingly.

I always think that it's easier to give misleading information than it is to gain accurate information.

As heads up is such a cat and mouse game, with both players in the dark as to what the other person has, it's important to build a table image that is nothing like your usual game. Let the other guy think he knows how you play. If he can be convinced that he knows why you make certain moves, you will have the edge.
The rest is down to 'will he get lucky?'

Tip:- ( tongue in cheek )...hover your mouse over the players name to see where he comes from. Certain nationalities seem to have a penchant for big bluffs, maybe it's worth calling most of their post river bets if you have top pair gd kicker or better.
If you win half of them you should be doing ok...I've seen them betting and calling with a pair of 2s when there's 4 overcards on the board..

DukeOfDeath · #5 12-11-2011

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