Draw odds vs. Pot odds

[BBOB]

I thought I would do a thread showing the odds of hitting your straight or flush draw after the flop and then the odds after the turn. Heres a key to go by.
•Gutshot or inside draw - A straight draw with only one card able to complete it. e.g. 6-8 on a 5-9-Q board (only a 7 completes).
•Straight - A standard open-ended straight draw with more outs. e.g. 6-8 on a 5-7-Q board (5 and 9 complete).
•Flush - A hand where another card of the same suit is needed to complete the draw.
•s + f - Both an open ended straight draw and flush combined. e.g. 6 8 on a 5 7 Q board.[LIST][*]gutshot and flush draw - a gutshot and flush draw

1. gutshot = 7.5-1 on flop and 10.5-1 on turn
2. open-end draw = 4.1-1 on flop and 4.7-1 on turn
3. flush draw = 3.8-1 on flop 4.5-1 on turn
4. straight and flush draw = 2.6-1 on flop and 3.7-1 on turn
5. gutshot and flush draw = 3.2-1 on flop and 4.8-1 on turn

These odds are not exact but should give you a good idea of your chances. These odds can be turned into percentages ofcourse. Now pot odds are the odds your getting to make a call. (ie. someone bets 100 chips and their are 500 chips in pot, you are getting 5-1 odds on your money to call.) Lets say for instance someone bets 200 chips on the turn and their are 600 chips in the pot, you are getting 3-1 odds on your money to make the call and lets say you have an openend straight draw on the turn,your odds of hitting it are around 5-1 with one card to come. The odds dictate that you fold because the odds of hitting out weigh the pot odds. Ofcourse it is still a good draw but the odds say you should most likely fold but basically it lets you know your chances and you can decide for yourself whether you like the odds or not. I know this thread is not an exact science and im surely no expert. But i thought this would give people some idea of how the odds game works. As I said Im sure their are many things possibly inacurate in what ive said in this post but its a subject you hear brought up all the time thought id start the ball rolling and hopefully we can get more posts and threads about Poker stratagey. { ps The draw odds are based on the number of outs you have. (this ofcourse varies depending on what cards other players may have folded or are holding, as this can change the number of outs you have) } Please feel free to add and comment on this thread I think more poker discussion is always a good thing and hope to see more of it. (these are just rough estimates their are several different ways to figure odds depending on what other variables you take into consideration. I have listed the percentages of hitting your hand in my other post if u scroll down.These are pretty accurate.sternswiss has added in this post and a related post different ways to figure the odds for your own purposes using several different methods depending on which is most helpful to you.)

[cuddycat]

Thank you BBob your posts are always helpful.

[TIDDLYW1NK]

N1 MATE, HOWEVER IF YOU TOLD 25% OF THE PLAYERS ON THIS SITE THEIR NAME WAS DUNCAN, THEY'D BELIEVE YA

[BBOB]

ok ive updated these odds. cant seem to find 2 websites that agree so ive done the best i can turning percentages into odds (math not my strong point LOL) but i hope this gives some idea. My friend sternswiss is going to add to this im sure he will give much more accurate picture than i can. )) Here ive listed the percentages of hitting your card on flop and then on the turn. Perhaps stern can calculate the odds better than me using these.

1. gutshot or inside straight draw = 16.5% on flop & 8.7% on turn
2. open-end straight draw = 31.5% on flop & 17.4% on turn
3. flush draw = 35 % on flop & 19.6 % on turn
4. openend straight and flush draw = 59.8% on flop & 37% on turn
5. gutshot and flush draw = 45% on flop and 26.1% on turn

[SternSwiss]

Originally Posted by BBOB

ok ive updated these odds. cant seem to find 2 websites that agree so ive done the best i can turning percentages into odds (math not my strong point LOL) but i hope this gives some idea. My friend sternswiss is going to add to this im sure he will give much more accurate picture than i can. )) Here ive listed the percentages of hitting your card on flop and then on the turn. Perhaps stern can calculate the odds better than me using these.

1. gutshot or inside straight draw = 16.5% on flop & 8.7% on turn
2. open-end straight draw = 31.5% on flop & 17.4% on turn
3. flush draw = 35 % on flop & 19.6 % on turn
4. openend straight and flush draw = 59.8% on flop & 37% on turn
5. gutshot and flush draw = 45% on flop and 26.1% on turn

Thanks for the interesting post, Bob.

As we just discussed on the table; I wanted to make some comments because a couple of odds you listed were wrong but you have corrected them to be more precise.

I still thought useful to give some more general background elements.



1) Why is this important?
Serious poker is a game that is evaluated in the long run not on one specific game. Pros have a bankroll they need to manage to keep surviving and everyone else prefer to win in the long run rather than loose.

So, say, if I have drawing odds of 2:1 ( approx 33% chances of hitting) and that I have to pay 500 to see a 1000 pot I will be loosing money on the long run because the odds for hitting (33%) are much smaller than what I have to pay to see the draw (50%). If you keep doing this regularly for a long time, you will simply loose the difference no matter your great wins here and there.

This is the basic theory.

Now, with the same example, if you anticiapte someone else will be calling after you and are convinced that if you hit you'll get the nuts it is another story: because the next caller will bring the odds to exactly 33% (you paid an extra 500 to see a pot of 1500, so 33%). What it means is that if you call these type of odds, on the long run you will neither loose nor win (but the next person could fold in which case you don't get the odds, or raise, which then restarts calculations, hence another role of position play).

As a general observation here: people tend to call a lot with largely unfavorable odds.


2) How are outs calculated?

Outs (and then odds based on them) are based on an abstract model because you cannot know the cards of other players.

So, on flop you know 5 cards (your two hole cards and the flop) and outs will be calculated on these solely, as if no other card had been distributed.

Example: I hold 4 clubs after the flop. Need one to make the flush to my ace, which stand great chances to be the nuts (no pair on deck, no str8 flush connections).

There are 13 clubs in the deck. I have 4 of them in my hand. 9 remains that will give me my nut flush; they are my outs.

I know 5 cards out of the 52, so 47 unknown remain. I have 9/47 chances to hit with the next card -> 19.1 % (or close to 4:1); it give my odds.

If I don't hit on turn, I will get 9/46 chances to hit on the river


3) be careful about some figures you find out there on the net,. for they are at times plain wrong or, more often, not clearly specifying what they apply to.

F.ex: If you are on a draw after flop and expect the opponenent who just bet on flop to have the best hand unless you hit your flush. It would be wrong to consider you have the odds for draw on turn and river, because it is likely your opponent will bet again on the turn. You would have both odds combined only in case of all-in.

This where the figues listed by Bob needs to be treated with caution.


The figures he gave usually show odds are "x on flop" and usually "x/2 on turn" (apprx), the flop figure has to be understood if you see both turn and river, which is far form certain depending how your opponents will believe after the turn:

- If you are all-in: you will see both and figure applies
- If your opponent(s) check the turn figure also applies, but it is not going necessarily be the case, far form it.
- If your opponent bet the turn (and you didn't hit), you have to recalculate your drawing hands from the turn figures only.

This last bit is crucial. Because you might call a 35% (approx) odds on flop (ie 400 to see 1200) to get another bet on turn (say 800 to see 1600). If you had read your opponent was not also on a draw but holding the best hand unless you hit, well calculation has to be different and use what is known as equity projection (which is too complex to be outlined here in detail).

The simplified reasoning goes: I pay 400 for 1200, in 20 % of the case I hit (and then estimate what you think you can squeeze out of your opponent) and in 80% I don't and will face another bet which will make no sense to call oddwise. See if you think the balance is worth it or not and then deicde on your move.

Imagine to keep it simple that your opponent has 1000 chips left and is aggressive so you count on his good will for jeopardizing them even if you hit

If you hit: you paid 400 and got a 2200 profit. Multiply this by 20% and you get 440. So it was a good call as it gives a little profit.

But know imagine you opponent only has 600 chips left. Here again you pay 400 but this time for a 1800 profit in case you hit.

Now your equity ratio is only 360 expected return (20% of 1800) for paying 400, and the kind call isn't good anymore: it will make you lose money overtime.

This reasoning goes for calling. Now if you choose to speak first / attack with a draw (semi-bluff) it is of course a whole different projection.


4) Other points to take in consideration

These "shortcut figures" are just a benchmark, real precise odds ultimately need to be calculated in context and modified accordingly for certain outs might be interferring with each other (and you need to try to conjecture what your opponent is playing / drawing for certain cards you might count as outs could actually kill you)

Example:

I have A2 clubs

flop is Kc 10h 4c

The opponenent holds K10, if the 10 of clubs hit I make my ace flush but I am dead.


Example 2:

I have AK diamonds

flop is Qd Jd 2s

For the turn, the outs for a flush are 9/47 and for the str8 4/47 (need a 10). The 10 of diamonds, though, appears in both so my total outs are not 13/47 but 12/47.



5) In other words, such charts are very handy for quick reference, but have to be used remembering they are always approximate and knowing what kind of draw you are on (turn and river for sure, turn then see then river, etc.)



1 Card To Come (flop) / 1 Card To Come (turn) / 2 Cards To Come (flop)


1 out / 2.1% / 2.2% / 4.3%


2 outs (pair aiming for trips) 4.3% / 4.3%/ 8.4%


4 outs (gutshot) 8.5% / 8.7% / 16.5%


8 outs (straight) 17.0% / 17.4% / 31.5%


9 outs (flush) 19.1% / 19.6% / 35.0%

etc.


Finally, even if this seems a bit too abstract to apply right away in play be careful with your draws!!!!

I feel very often people get over enthusiastic with, say, a flush draw but remember that your odds on the next card is around 20% which is approx the same then if you were facing AA with 72 preflop heads-up

In other words: play them wisely and it will bonify you results for sure, play them lousily and you will have some moments of glory (and some bad beats for your opponenets) but it will keep your results unsatisfactorily on the long run


Ok, this ended up much longer than I had expected.... Hope it is readable...

[pappy747]

Originally Posted by TIDDLYW1NK

N1 MATE, HOWEVER IF YOU TOLD 25% OF THE PLAYERS ON THIS SITE THEIR NAME WAS DUNCAN, THEY'D BELIEVE YA

Hi Duncan disorderly

[stevo_58]

Really interesting stuff. I understand the concept but to be honest I'm still struggling with most of the nitty gritty. I know understanding the odds is important, which is why I should take more notice of them when playing, However, I do find my tired old brain struggles to work it out in the time available LOL. I read somewhere that a very rough way to quickly work out your hand odds was to add up the number of outs you have, double it and add 2. But it is rough and it is based on after the flop, not turn.