[Expert] NLHE Strategy Post #2: Correct Decisions & Not Results

[EurekaKid]

This is a very important concept! To be a winning poker player you must focus on making correct decisions on every street and then not questioning those decisions based on the result of the hand. For instance you may raise 99 under the gun, and wind up losing a big pot when the flop comes 987 and you end up getting all-in vs. an opponent who has 56 and their hand holds up.

Some people might question whether they were correct to raise 99 UTG, they might question whether it is correct to get all-in on the flop, they might assume that because they lost, because they got their money in bad, they played the hand badly. This is a flawed way to look at poker.

Is 99 a hand to raise UTG? In most situations yes! It is a premium hand, it is one that plays well in raised pots, therefore you should generally by raising it. Lets look at the flop... if we assess that our opponent will happily commit to being allin with two pair+{ 88-77, JTs, 98s, 87s, 65s } on the board then we are actually ahead of his range. I did some calculations in a program called pokerstove, and here are the results...


Board: 9h 8s 7c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 66.283% 64.48% 01.80% 10852 303.50 { 9d9s }
Hand 1: 33.717% 31.91% 01.80% 5371 303.50 { 88-77, JTs, 98s, 87s, 65s }

There are a few assumptions I have made here, but in essence if they stack off with 2 pair + here we are a 66% favourite! therefore we should be happy to get out money in every day of the week, even if we are sometimes up against a straight.

[SternSwiss]

Yeah the concept entirley right. Furthermore within the same game, you WILL loose some hands againts originally weaker hands, but if you keep making good decisions constantly, the odds should catch up positively with you. If they don't you have been quite unlucky today, but in the long run it will pay off.

This is to say that: don't focus on winning every hand and do not change to a weak passive style just because you have lost one where you betted strong according to odds.

[blee66]

Silly question, what exactly does 'under the gun' refer to?

[SternSwiss]

under the gun refers to the first person to act in a hand, or the player in earliest position.

You can refer to your position (in the first half of people involved) by, for example, UTG + 2

(third person to act in the hand)


What is important under this notion is position, a crucial factor of play

[WilcoNick]

Thanks for the stats backing up the thought process. I haven't been playing too long, and I'm learning not to get too frustrated by bad beats. Lost A-high flush to full house five times in past two weeks, not that I'm keeping track or anything lol.

[Dada_Dali]

Originally Posted by EurekaKid

Just don't be results orientated is what I am saying. If you get KK all-in vs. AA and lose, don't suddenly assume you did something wrong.

Yes, but don't be a slave to this. If you get the sense that you may not be best, do not be afraid to fold. You have to read (and trust your read of) your opponents. Also, Never regret a lay down. For every time you fold when you would have won the hand, there are dozens of times it saved your money. Certainly evaluate yourself. But do not second guess yourself. Trust your gut feeling and go with it. And remember to try and have fun!

[Zouzou123gen]

i usually sum it up as "forget your cards as soon as you've got rid of them, whatever happens next" and this helps accentuate the positive on losses.