Where'd My M&Ms Go?!?

[DukeOfDeath]

So after placing 3rd in Ultra Outlaws I took a shower. While in the shower I thought of the hand I won to burst the bubble. And I thought of an interesting topic.

First of all everyone who hasn't read this should do so. Very good information very crucial to tournament play.

So how does M apply in a cut throat world like Ultra Outlaws?

SoCal has 1423 chips in the small blind. Blinds are 400/800 and 100 ante. BBOB and dsmooth fold to him. What hands should he raise with here? What hands should he fold? Should he ever call? How does this change with different players in the BB seat? Food for thought. Love to see people's thoughts.

[Bonik]

In his place i raise all in with any pair.

[OP66fozzy]

500 of his 1423 chips have gone in the pot, leaving 923.

For me, the rest are going in whatever cards he's holding, and whether it is to call a raise or to start the betting.

[DukeOfDeath]

Originally Posted by OP66fozzy

500 of his 1423 chips have gone in the pot, leaving 923.

For me, the rest are going in whatever cards he's holding, and whether it is to call a raise or to start the betting.

yeah I agree. Some people will just shove here. Some flat and call a raise. Some flat and fold to a raise. When it's checked some check fold a flop, some check call, some shove. Honestly if people in BB are really passive you can flat. I can see folding a very few hands, but I don't see any sense in calling with an intention of folding. And if all your money is going in why not raise and hope that maybe you can possibly even force a fold (though most people correctly won't fold). SoCal shoved with 98o, and I completely agree with that play. He got unlucky that I had AK, but even if he knew I had AK it was still the right move IMO.

So more questions:

You obviously call anything with 501 chips in this spot because if you fold, you will only have 1 chip left and have next to no chance of coming back. You obviously DON'T call with 72o if you have more like 8000 here because you have wiggle room and it's a crap hand. So what is the magic number of chips where you break even shoving 32o (the worst hand heads up), assuming BB calls anything?

There will be an exact answer, but see if you're gut instinct is close.

[OP66fozzy]

Not sure I agree there is an 'EXACT' answer, but I will wait and see.

Ultra outlaws, where the blinds go up every 2 minutes, I am tempted to get them all in with a larger stack than a tournament with a 10 minute blind structure because there is every chance the blinds will have gone up again before they get round to me.

Also, the number of players left at the table would determine the number for me.

10BB is usually the magic number where I am only betting all-in, but that is when I feel I have the right hand, I would be folding 32off in SB with 10BB ( even in ultra Outlaws ).

So, what is the most chips I would shove with in SB when folded round to me at 400/800 and 100 ante or the minimum number of chips where I would fold said hand ? 2500 chips behind, I would fold, 2499 behind, I would shove.

Mind you, this would also be slightly flexible on who the BB is, some players are more likely to fold a raise whilst others are more likely to defend their blind.

Look forward to seeing your 'exact' number and the rationale behind it.

[DukeOfDeath]

Originally Posted by OP66fozzy

So, what is the most chips I would shove with in SB when folded round to me at 400/800 and 100 ante or the minimum number of chips where I would fold said hand ? 2500 chips behind, I would fold, 2499 behind, I would shove.

Mind you, this would also be slightly flexible on who the BB is, some players are more likely to fold a raise whilst others are more likely to defend their blind.

Look forward to seeing your 'exact' number and the rationale behind it.

Yeah there isn't an exact number when variables are flexible. But if you are assuming BB HAS to call and has a random hand, there is an exact number. And you were close. 1948 is the cutoff.

Rationale: Against a random hand you are 32.303% (and you lose 67.697%) The amount you stand to gain to the amount you will risk should be the same or greater than the proportion of times you lose to times you win. So if you let amount you have behind be "x" [what's in the pot= 1600] + [what BB will call when you shove= x] is what you stand to gain and x is what you stand to lose. So 67.697/32.303 should equal (1600+x)/x. Solve for x and get 1448. Add that to the 500 you already put in and get 1948 (which is about 2.435 BB for those who want to apply this at different blind levels)

So yeah. Good to know?

[OP66fozzy]

See, now you are adding extra info, BB 'HAS' to call. Maybe my previous post would have been different given that info.

Let me think, BB HAS to call.....thinking......still thinking.........#

OK, my gut feeling is ( with this additional info ) 1948 !!

[DukeOfDeath]

Originally Posted by DukeOfDeath

So what is the magic number of chips where you break even shoving 32o (the worst hand heads up), assuming BB calls anything?

There will be an exact answer, but see if you're gut instinct is close.

emphasis added, but I diiiid mention it. Understandable that you missed it with my long windedness though

[OP66fozzy]

OK, I didn't read that as BB 'HAS' to call.

[DukeOfDeath]

yeah apparently I'm really bad at getting across what I'm trying to say on this forum. I need to start a completely separate thread just for things I say that people don't understand.