Flush Flush Flush - what are the odds

[M_80]

This is a very crude analysis but it may explain why we see so many flushes lately.

In 100 hands you should expect to see the following:

25 of those 100 hands will have suited cards:
Out of the 25, 1 will hit a flush on the flop.
Out of the 25, 12 will have a flush draw after the flop
Out of those 12, 3 will hit a flush on the turn or river.
75 of the 100 will be unsuited:
Out of the 75, 2 will have a flush draw after the flop
Out of those 2, .6 will hit a flush.
Out of the 75, 37 will have 3 suited cards after the flop
Out of those 37, 2 will hit a flush on the turn and river.

So if everyone stays until the river there should be a flush 6.6 out of every 100 hands. On a 10 player table that is potentially a flush 6 out of every 10 rounds.
The more people that play till the river the more flushes you will see. When we have 6 out of 10 players paying to see the flop every time you should expect to see more hands hit.

Now, before everyone gets excited and decides to play till the river every time, remember that only 6.6 hands out of 100 will hit. So you will lose 14 times for every time you win. Statistics are a funny game.

[gary70]

interesting m8 now all i need you to tell me is...

how do i get someone to fold Q 5 off when i raise 10 times or more the bb

with a real hand say kk

[M_80]

You don't want them to fold m8 - you want them to add to your chip stack. You will win more often than not.

[MRCOOL1]

nice thread, M80. very well and thoughtfully constructed.

I hope people get it so we can stop moanin and get back to playin poker

[jim1961]

I had a real rough vindaloo last night. My whole day has been flush flush flush

sorry

[stevo_58]

Originally Posted by jim1961

I had a real rough vindaloo last night. My whole day has been flush flush flush

sorry

Mate, I am in stitches over that, LMAO.

Good thread M 80, very intersting. By the way, how do you know this stuff?

[stjimmy]

great stuff m8, i`m getting a bit sick and tired of the conspiracy theorists...

[sa11y69]

Originally Posted by stevo_58

very intersting. By the way, how do you know this stuff?

he makes it up...Lava's got him on the payroll

[dumbdog]

lol good one sally
i had been noticing more flushes too,but no clue why
(yep the blonde thing again)
numbers are not my "thing" so i appreciate ur intellect
and insights into these statics M_80 thanks

[M_80]

HHHHMMMMM, Sally - I guess I owe you one for that and I always pay my debts sooner or later. Mostly later.

[Ozzy420]

I dunno about more flushes lately, but lately I've been getting burned FAR more often than not on the river when I'm fishing for a flush, so those stats do seem to make sense. Maybe people are just noticing more flushes due tomore full tables?