Wizard of Odds

[OP66fozzy]

In a heads up, the pocket 4s are the best odds pre flop. But assuming they don't make an all in bet as the first move on a table with multiple players, they are probably the hardest to play.

Before any betting was to take place, I'd go with the AKo.

[DukeOfDeath]

If you don't want the answer (and yes there is a correct one) then don't read on. If you do here goes:

If you are choosing first, you can't make a correct decision. It is the equivalent of choosing first in rock paper scissors. Whatever you choose, I can choose something better. Here are the actual odds:

vs
%Win 54.29%
%Tie 0.45%
Odds 0.83 to 1

vs.
%Win 52.45%
%Tie 0.87%
Odds 0.89 to 1

vs.
%Win 58.39%
%Tie 0.45%
Odds 0.71 to 1

You see each hand loses to one of the others and beats one of the others. A giant circle. For all of you that picked that beloved Jack Ten I'd pick Big slick and be well ahead, but if you were to pick that same Big Slick I could beat you with Fours. And those fours lose to a suited JT (I know most of you think that any pair vs overcard situation is a slight favorite for the pair, but not always).

Anyway, Amarillo Slim used to offer this wager to others and put money on it (not put up a poll in a forum like I) and would make some pretty nice dough off it. I think it's a very interesting concept. Just like everyone knows AA is the best and 72o is the worst, but 72o has a 12.68% chance to beat or tie AA, whereas a much stronger hand like AK only has a smidge over 7% to win or even tie.

Up against AA your 72 is almost twice as good as AK!!! Puts this game in a different light if you ask me.

Just some more tidbits and alternate info on these hands (JTs,44, and AKo):

If 3 people are all in with these hands JTs is the favorite (unless the AK has the same suit in it in which case it's the favorite).

If you are heads up against someone and they can have any two cards your best shot is by far the AKo.

Against someone you KNOW has either AKo, JTs, or 44 your best shot is to be holding 44 yourself (JT is by far the worst in said spot).

If you are forced to take the bet, pick 44 because though it still loses to JTs, it still has a better chance than the other matchups.

But yeah a lot of you were talking about opponents and position and other decisions. Of course in these REAL situations, it's much more complicated. But as far as odds go, there's your answer.

Correct choice is D. Don't take my bet, go find some other sucker who will take it against you.

So long from the Wizard of Odds

[Bonik]

So, here it is: the exact battle of the three.

[CaptainSandy]

Originally Posted by DukeOfDeath

If you don't want the answer (and yes there is a correct one) then don't read on. If you do here goes:

If you are choosing first, you can't make a correct decision. It is the equivalent of choosing first in rock paper scissors. Whatever you choose, I can choose something better. Here are the actual odds:

vs
%Win 54.29%
%Tie 0.45%
Odds 0.83 to 1

vs.
%Win 52.45%
%Tie 0.87%
Odds 0.89 to 1

vs.
%Win 58.39%
%Tie 0.45%
Odds 0.71 to 1

You see each hand loses to one of the others and beats one of the others. A giant circle. For all of you that picked that beloved Jack Ten I'd pick Big slick and be well ahead, but if you were to pick that same Big Slick I could beat you with Fours. And those fours lose to a suited JT (I know most of you think that any pair vs overcard situation is a slight favorite for the pair, but not always).

Anyway, Amarillo Slim used to offer this wager to others and put money on it (not put up a poll in a forum like I) and would make some pretty nice dough off it. I think it's a very interesting concept. Just like everyone knows AA is the best and 72o is the worst, but 72o has a 12.68% chance to beat or tie AA, whereas a much stronger hand like AK only has a smidge over 7% to win or even tie.

Up against AA your 72 is almost twice as good as AK!!! Puts this game in a different light if you ask me.

Just some more tidbits and alternate info on these hands (JTs,44, and AKo):

If 3 people are all in with these hands JTs is the favorite (unless the AK has the same suit in it in which case it's the favorite).

If you are heads up against someone and they can have any two cards your best shot is by far the AKo.

Against someone you KNOW has either AKo, JTs, or 44 your best shot is to be holding 44 yourself (JT is by far the worst in said spot).

If you are forced to take the bet, pick 44 because though it still loses to JTs, it still has a better chance than the other matchups.

But yeah a lot of you were talking about opponents and position and other decisions. Of course in these REAL situations, it's much more complicated. But as far as odds go, there's your answer.

Correct choice is D. Don't take my bet, go find some other sucker who will take it against you.

So long from the Wizard of Odds

Jack/Ten of DIAMONDS - oh I thought you were talking about SPADES!!!

[DukeOfDeath]

Originally Posted by CaptainSandy

Jack/Ten of DIAMONDS - oh I thought you were talking about SPADES!!!

haha. I worried that might throw people off

Originally Posted by Bonik

So, here it is: the exact battle of the three.

very nice. you must be either:

• be really lucky to have this happen right after this thread
• have sick mad hands volume so that you have a hand for every possible scenario
• be pretty good at photoshop

[teebs]

So what are the exact odds of all 3 hands playing eachother duke?

[DukeOfDeath]

well it depends on how many at the table. but let's say just 3:

odds are 50,896,300:1 against.... so you know happens all the time

[teebs]

Originally Posted by DukeOfDeath

well it depends on how many at the table. but let's say just 3:

odds are 50,896,300:1 against.... so you know happens all the time

Wow Didnt expect it to be that much.

[Bonik]

Originally Posted by DukeOfDeath

haha. I worried that might throw people off




very nice. you must be either:

• be really lucky to have this happen right after this thread
• have sick mad hands volume so that you have a hand for every possible scenario
• be pretty good at photoshop

The answer is I got lucky. If you want i'll give the hand history tomorrow, as I played it at office computer not at home.

[sexynomore]

Finally a thread that makes sense. Good job, fun read and informative

[BBOB]

I picked the AK I just would feel most comfortable with it. It really is a toss up w these hands I started to pick 4s. With AK id have overs if u picked 4s. And id be favorite if u picked j10 suited. Its too close to call if you ask me no matter which you pick.

[Bonik]

Everleaf Gaming Game #343755037
***** Hand history for game #343755037 *****
Blinds 25/50 NL Hold'em - 2012/01/06 - 10:44:34
Table FUN Berlin III
Seat 1
Total number of players: 4
Seat 1: barabas14 ( 4085 practice chips )
Seat 2: Bonik ( 4870 practice chips )
Seat 3: gorinich ( 30365 practice chips )
Seat 4: Sergio321 ( 5085 practice chips )
Bonik: posts 25]
Sergio321: posts 50]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bonik ]
barabas14 4,085]
Bonik 4,845]
Sergio321 4,820]
** Dealing Flop ** ]
** Dealing Turn ** ]
** Dealing River ** ]
barabas14 shows ] two pairs, nines and fours
Bonik shows ] a pair of nines
Sergio321 shows ] a straight, jack high
Sergio321 wins 12250 practice chips from main pot with a straight, jack high ]
Sergio321 wins 1570 practice chips from side pot with a straight, jack high ]

[CherryPie]

I WAS TORN, I KNEW THE AK O/S WAS FAV AGAINST J10suited & I KNEW 44 WAS FAV AGAINST AK O/S but then the 44 v J10suited I WASNT SURE ABOUT, TOTALLY THREW ME, SO PICKED 44 TO PUT AN ANSWER.

I LOVED THIS DoD ... VERY INTERESTING ... VV COOL INDEED..

AND SUPER SCREENSHOT BONIK LOL !

[DukeOfDeath]

Originally Posted by BBOB

I picked the AK I just would feel most comfortable with it. It really is a toss up w these hands I started to pick 4s. With AK id have overs if u picked 4s. And id be favorite if u picked j10 suited. Its too close to call if you ask me no matter which you pick.

Yeah it's definitely close, but even a 5-10% edge is a lot better than "too close" in my opinion. Obviously you wouldn't do this with your entire bankroll and only run it once. But otherwise any edge is an edge.